Trans Mountain Pipeline: One Year On, Not Fully Flowing

Troy Tyrell | Tsquared Personal Training Founder | May 9, 2025

VANCOUVER, BC — One year after the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) was completed, expectations of full capacity and noticeable benefits at the pump haven’t materialized. While operational, the pipeline is running below its full design capacity, and fuel costs for British Columbians remain largely unchanged.

1. High Shipping Costs

With the final project cost soaring to approximately $34 billion, TMX became one of the most expensive infrastructure projects in Canadian history. To recoup costs, shipping tolls were significantly increased—making it less competitive than alternatives like the Enbridge Mainline. As a result, some oil companies have opted to ship elsewhere, keeping TMX underfilled.

2. Global Market Fit

TMX transports primarily diluted bitumen—a heavy form of crude oil. While this was intended to access growing demand in Asia, many overseas refineries prefer lighter crude or lack the capacity to handle heavy blends. This has limited the expansion’s global competitiveness and slowed uptake.

3. Infrastructure Integration Still in Progress

New infrastructure often requires a lengthy phase-in period. Marine terminal operations, scheduling logistics, and shipper contracts are still stabilizing. Full utilization is expected to improve over time, but TMX isn’t yet the streamlined shipping corridor it was envisioned to be.

4. Gas Prices Still High for B.C.

It’s important to note: TMX moves crude oil, not refined gasoline. Because B.C. imports most of its refined fuel—primarily from Washington State—pipeline changes haven’t impacted gas prices. Taxes, refining bottlenecks, and currency exchange continue to influence what drivers pay at the pump.

5. Environmental Footprint and Ecosystem Concerns

The construction and expansion of the TMX pipeline had significant environmental implications:

• Marine Impact: Increased tanker traffic through Burrard Inlet has raised concerns about risks to endangered Southern Resident killer whales due to underwater noise and the potential for oil spills.
• Terrestrial Disruption: Over 1,100 km of expanded pipeline cut through diverse ecosystems, disrupting wildlife habitats and watersheds.
• Spill Risk: While new safety technologies have been implemented, the transportation of diluted bitumen presents unique cleanup challenges if a spill occurs, particularly in waterways.
• Carbon Emissions: Although pipelines are often considered safer than rail, the overall emissions footprint of expanded fossil fuel transport remains a concern in Canada's climate strategy.

Regulators imposed over 150 conditions to mitigate impacts, but many environmental groups and Indigenous communities have expressed ongoing concerns.

BOTTOM LINE

One year in, the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion has yet to meet its full operational potential. Economic, logistical, and environmental factors are all in play. While it strengthens Canada’s oil transport capacity, its impact on local gas prices and global energy dynamics remains limited.

From an environmental standpoint, TMX represents a trade-off: increased export capacity vs. ecological risk. How that balance plays out will take years to assess.

For Vancouver-based facts, clear context, and local leadership—follow WBN and Troy Tyrell at TsquaredVancouverPersonalTraining.com

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