
FIGHTER JETS FOR TRADE RELIEF? The strategy behind Canada's biggest negotiation play:
Prime Minister Carney's recent Washington trip wasn't just a courtesy call—it was a strategic opening move on the North American trade chessboard.
Many hoped Carney would return with immediate tariff relief. He didn't—and that was precisely the right move.
Here's why:
If Carney had rushed into a quick trade deal during this visit, Trump would likely have demanded Canada's commitment to the full F-35 fighter jet contract—currently valued at over C$33 billion and under strategic review by the Carney government.
Instead, Carney played the long game. Based on 14+ years in international trade negotiations, I'm seeing a calculated strategy unfold: using the F-35 contract as leverage for the much bigger prize—CUSMA 2.0 negotiations coming in 2025.
This matters to every Canadian business engaged in cross-border trade. Here's why:
Smart negotiation strategy means:
✅ Keeping your biggest bargaining chips until the main event
✅ Understanding that quick deals often come with hidden costs
✅ Recognizing when short-term pain prevents long-term damage
The stakes are enormous:
• Over 85% of Canada-U.S. trade currently moves tariff-free under CUSMA
• The 2025 renegotiation will reshape digital trade, rules of origin, and more
• Energy policy tensions loom large in the upcoming discussions
Avoiding these strategic errors:
❌ Trading a C$33B defense contract for temporary tariff adjustments
❌ Negotiating major agreements during preliminary meetings
❌ Showing all your cards before the main negotiations begin
This approach isn't without risk. Business uncertainty continues while trade tensions simmer. But having advised governments on trade strategy for years, I'm seeing the foundations of a thoughtful approach.
Canadian businesses should prepare now for CUSMA 2.0 by:
• Reviewing your supply chains for vulnerability to tariff shifts
• Building contingencies for both positive and negative outcomes
• Understanding the specific CUSMA provisions that affect your sector
The F-35 review represents powerful negotiating leverage in a high-stakes game where billions in trade hang in the balance. Whether you import, export, or both, these strategic moves at the highest level will eventually reach your business.
Connect with me to explore further how these negotiations might impact your specific business interests and what preparations you should consider now.
Connect with me to explore further how your business can capitalize on these emerging opportunities while navigating the complexities of international trade in today's shifting landscape.
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robertarthurs/
Robert Arthurs is the founder of Robert Arthurs International, a global business mechanic with 23 years of experience fixing businesses and fueling international trade strategies for entrepreneurs across Canada and beyond.
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