Iran–Israel Conflict: Global Economic & Business Impact

By WBN Global Intelligence Unit | June 15, 2025

🌐 Overview

The Iran–Israel conflict has intensified dramatically within the past 24 hours, entering a new phase of direct missile exchanges, international diplomatic responses, and economic volatility. This report summarizes the military developments, the status of Iran’s missile arsenal, current and projected global economic impacts, and outlines what to watch for in the coming days.

🌟 Key Military Developments (Sources: Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, The Guardian)

Iran launched ~200-270 ballistic missiles targeting Israeli airbases in the Negev and critical infrastructure.
Israel retaliated with airstrikes on Iranian military and energy targets in Tabriz and western Tehran.
Civilian casualties confirmed: At least 9 killed in Israel, 78 reported dead in Iran.
South Pars gas field in Iran was damaged, halting production in a major sector.
Hezbollah is mobilizing on Lebanon’s southern border.
UN Security Council scheduled an emergency session

🔫 Iran's Missile Arsenal Status (Sources: CSIS, Jane’s Defence, CNN, BBC)

Estimated pre-war inventory: ~3,000 ballistic missiles (Shahab, Fateh, Dezful, etc.)
Missiles launched in recent conflict: ~200–270 (~7–9%)
Operational inventory remaining: ~1,000 (~33% ready-to-launch)
Damaged infrastructure: Israeli strikes have degraded launch capabilities and supply chains.

📈 Economic Dashboard (June 15, 2025) (Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, MarketWatch)

Indicator	Value	24h Change	Commentary
Brent Crude Oil	$95.60	+8.4%	Surge due to energy supply fears
WTI Crude Oil	$91.20	+7.8%	Global fuel cost pressure
European Gas (TTF)	€35.40	+12.1%	LNG disruption concerns
Gold	$2,430	+2.5%	Safe-haven demand rising
S&P 500 Futures	5,250	−1.1%	Risk-off investor sentiment
Tel Aviv 35 Index	1,720	−5.3%	Local panic, warzone exposure
Bitcoin	$67,600	+4.8%	Alternative asset spike
US 10-Yr Treasury	4.25%	−0.12%	Flight to safety into U.S. bonds

🌎 Regional Impact Scores (1–100 Scale) (Source: WBN Global Intelligence Unit Analysis)

Region	Score	Commentary
Canada	38	Moderate inflation exposure via oil/gas
USA	52	Inflation & interest rate pressure, energy vulnerability
Global	67	Energy-importing countries and markets highly exposed

🧑‍💻 Impact on Citizens and Small Businesses (Sources: IMF, World Bank, BDC Canada, U.S. SBA)

🇨🇦 Canada

Citizens: Fuel up 10–20¢/L; inflation pressure on groceries and heating; higher borrowing costs.
Small Businesses: Rising freight and fuel costs; export boosts for energy producers; thin margins squeezed in retail and hospitality.

🇺🇸 United States

Citizens: Gas up $0.25–$0.40/gal; grocery inflation; volatile 401(k)s; delayed Fed rate cuts.
Small Businesses: Higher input costs (agriculture, logistics); loan access tightens; defense suppliers may benefit.

🌍 Global

Citizens: Fuel and food scarcity in import-reliant countries; weakened local currencies.
Small Businesses: Disrupted supply chains; lower demand due to inflation; localized production gains possible.

📊 Summary Impact Table

Group	Immediate Risk	Long-Term Effect
🇨🇦 Canadian Citizen	Fuel/food cost ↑	Mortgage rates stay high
🇺🇸 American Citizen	Gas, inflation ↑	Delayed financial relief
🌍 Global Citizen	Food/fuel scarcity	Economic instability
🇨🇦 Canadian SMBs	Cost pressure ↑	Export gains (energy, defense)
🇺🇸 U.S. SMBs	Input cost ↑	Financing squeeze
🌍 Global SMBs	Supply disruption	Margin risk + instability

✅ Action Items for Small Businesses

Review Fuel and Shipping Budgets
- Expect short-term cost increases; lock in fuel contracts where possible.
Reassess Pricing Strategies
- Factor in rising input costs; consider temporary surcharges or margin adjustments.
Diversify Suppliers
- Source alternatives to Middle Eastern goods or transport routes that may be disrupted.
Communicate with Customers
- Be transparent about pricing or delay issues to maintain trust.
Secure Financing Now
- If you need working capital, act before borrowing costs potentially rise again.
Explore Domestic or Local Opportunities
- Leverage shifting supply chains and rising demand for localized production.
Monitor Market Volatility
- Stay informed to manage risks tied to energy, commodities, and currency fluctuations.

🕵️ What to Watch Next

Retaliation waves: Both sides may escalate based on casualties or infrastructure damage.
Strait of Hormuz: Any threat to shipping here could push oil >$110/barrel.
Hezbollah activity: Cross-border launches could open a northern front.
U.S. or NATO intervention: Direct involvement would escalate regional and economic risk.
Iran's production & supply chains: Key military and energy infrastructure damage may affect long-term capabilities.
Central banks' reactions: Inflationary pressure may delay rate cuts globally.

By: WBN Global Intelligence Unit

💡 Final Note

The situation remains fluid. While the conflict is currently bilateral, the risk of regional escalation is high. Global businesses should closely monitor energy markets, logistics costs, and financial volatility. WBN will continue to update this report as the story develops.

🏷️ TAGS: #WBN Special Report #Iran Israel Conflict #Global Markets #Energy Crisis #Small Business Impact #Inflation Watch #Geopolitical Risk #Oil Prices #Business Resilience #Middle East Crisis