Housing Market Slowdown in BC & Ontario and Where to Look Instead
CMHC projects a ~2 % price drop in 2025 with BC and Ontario hardest hit, learn where ground-oriented homes, the Prairies, Quebec, and rentals may outperform.
✍️ By Debbie Balfour | WBN News | 2025-08-15| Click HERE for your FREE Subscription to WBN News and/or to be a Contributor.
If you’re bracing for a housing market cool-down in Canada, you’re not wrong, and there may be silver linings if you know exactly where to look.
The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) projects a national price decline of about 2 % in 2025, but the impact won’t be felt evenly. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to see the sharpest declines, weighed down by years of elevated prices, sluggish sales, and weakening buyer confidence.
In BC, affordability challenges remain steep, especially in Vancouver, where condo resale prices have already dipped nearly 3 % and new listings are outpacing sales. Ontario’s downturn is even more dramatic in certain segments, with Toronto condo prices down more than 13 % and sales volumes plunging. CMHC expects sales in both provinces to stay below their 10-year averages into 2026.
This doesn’t mean opportunity is gone. It simply means smart investors will shift their focus. Ground-oriented homes, such as single-family and townhouses, are projected to rebound faster than condos as supply stabilizes and buyers return for more space.
Geographically, the Prairies, especially Alberta and Saskatchewan, are showing more resilience. Stronger construction activity, higher interprovincial migration, and relatively affordable prices position these markets for steadier performance, even as BC and Ontario soften. Quebec also stands out for its balanced market conditions and more sustainable price growth, offering less volatility for cautious investors.
Another area of potential upside is the rental market. In Vancouver, purpose-built rental construction is on the rise, driven by historically tight vacancy rates and steady demand from newcomers. Long-term rental investors in supply-constrained urban cores may benefit from both stable cash flow and future appreciation once market sentiment recovers.
In every slowdown, there are winners, often not in the flashiest markets, but in the ones with enduring demand, balanced supply, and strong fundamentals. The key is to pivot quickly, identify the property types with staying power, and lean into regions where the macro picture supports long-term value growth.
Debbie Balfour | Real Estate Investing Success Coach + Podcast Host
📍 Website: www.DebbieBalfour.com
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Sources: CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Reuters, Mortgage Professional Canada, Canadian Mortgage Trends, RSM Canada, True North Mortgage, Real Estate Institute of Canada.
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